Qual a probabilidade da Terra ser atingida por um asteroide grande?

Há 66 milhões de anos, um asteroide acabou com os dinossauros. Mas qual é a chance disso acontecer hoje?

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Para descobrir a resposta, um novo estudo analisou objetos próximos à Terra, chamados NEOs, que incluem asteroides e cometas.

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O foco da pesquisa foi em corpos com mais de 140 metros, capazes de causar destruição regional ou global.

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As simulações com cinco milhões de trajetórias ao longo de 150 anos revelaram três impactos possíveis. Isso equivale a 0,009% ao ano — ou um impacto a cada 11 mil anos, em média.

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Ao longo de uma vida média de uma pessoa (71 anos), a chance acumulada é de cerca de 0,64%, ainda menor que 1%.

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Dessa forma, é mais provável você morrer de gripe, acidente de carro ou raio do que por impacto de asteroide.

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Mesmo assim, um impacto em uma área habitada poderia afetar até 1 milhão de pessoas. Ou seja: é raro, mas se acontecesse, seria desastroso.

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Por isso mesmo, estratégias de defesa planetária já são realidade: em 2022, a missão DART desviou um asteroide pela primeira vez.

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